Tampa Bay Industrial Market

Tampa Bay Industrial Market: 2023–2025 Performance & 2025–2026 Outlook

Tampa Bay’s industrial market has cooled from its 2021–2022 frenzy, but fundamentals remain solid with healthy demand, steady rent growth in newer product, and vacancy still below national averages. Below are the headline investment and leasing metrics—plus a grounded occupancy outlook for 2025–2026.

Capitalization Rates (last 3 years)

• 2023 (avg.): ~6.8% (market snapshot compiled from CoStar by Matthews™). Lee & Associates

• 2024 (avg.): ~6.7% (Q2 2024 read). Bounat

• 2025 YTD (Q1): ~7.6% (momentum shifted higher with rates and risk pricing). Invalid URL

Investors priced more conservatively through late 2024 into early 2025, pushing cap rates up ~90 bps from 2024’s low watermark.

Average Lease Amount ($/SF)

• Overall net asking rent: $10.33/SF (Q2 2025) per Cushman & Wakefield’s MarketBeat. (Q2 2024 showed $10.60/SF, underscoring the climb from 2023.) burpeecommercial.comCushman & Wakefield

Different brokerages report slightly different market baskets (NNN vs. net, submarket mix). For example, Avison Young shows $9.56/SF NNN (Q2 2025) and Savills flags $9.02/SF (Q2 2025)—a useful range-check if you’re underwriting. United StatesSavills

Occupancy: 3-Year Change

To keep apples-to-apples, we compare Q2 2022 → Q2 2025:

• Vacancy Q2 2022: 4.1% (Colliers) ⇒ Occupancy 95.9%. Colliers

• Vacancy Q2 2025: 6.7% (Cushman & Wakefield) ⇒ Occupancy 93.3%. burpeecommercial.com

Result: Occupancy fell ~2.7% over the last three years (95.9% → 93.3%). (Calculation: –2.6 percentage points / 95.9% = –2.7%.) Colliersburpeecommercial.com

Projected Occupancy (Owner’s Outlook)

Base case (grounded in current pipeline, leasing, and preleasing trends):

• End-2025 occupancy: ~92.8%–93.2% (vacancy ~6.8%–7.2%).

• End-2026 occupancy: ~92%–93% (vacancy ~7%–8%), stabilizing as deliveries moderate and demand normalizes.

Why this range?

• Vacancy ticked up through 2024–2025 with sizable deliveries; C&W flagged continued upward pressure as late as Q2 2024, and Q2 2025 sits at 6.7%. Avison shows 7.2% for Q2 2025, reinforcing the directional trend. New supply is still working through the system, though the U.S. pipeline is contracting (JLL). Cushman & WakefieldUnited StatesJLL

Quick Takeaways for Investors & Occupiers

• Pricing: Cap rates moved from high-6s (2023–2024) to mid-to-high-7s in early 2025; newer Class A assets with strong credit still command tighter yields. Lee & AssociatesBounat

• Rents: Headline asking rents crossed the $10/SF threshold in 2024; $10.33/SF (Q2 2025) is a fair current “market” print, with submarket spreads. Cushman & Wakefieldburpeecommercial.com

• Occupancy: The market stepped down from ultra-tight 2022 conditions; expect a range-bound 92%–93% occupancy as new product leases up over the next ~18 months. burpeecommercial.comUnited States

Sources

• Cushman & Wakefield, Tampa Bay Industrial MarketBeat (Q2 2025, Q2 2024; vacancy & rents). burpeecommercial.comCushman & Wakefield

• Hillsborough County EDC (CBRE-sourced), Q4 2023 Industrial (trend visuals). Tampa Bay EDC

• Colliers, Q2 2022 Tampa Bay Industrial (vacancy baseline). Colliers

• Matthews™ (CoStar-sourced), Q1 2025 Tampa Industrial Snapshot (cap rate ~6.8% reference, vacancy/rent color). Lee & Associates

• Bounat Industrial Tampa Bay (cap rate reads: 6.7% in 2024, 7.6% in Q1 2025). BounatInvalid URL

• Avison Young, Q2 2025 Tampa Industrial (rent & vacancy cross-check). United States

• JLL, U.S. Industrial Market Dynamics Q2 2025 (pipeline/normalization context). JLL